The material on this site supports Teaching Probabiity, published by Cambridge University Press in the Cambridge Mathematics series.
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Chapter 1: Introduction
- Galesic M, Garcia-Retamero R. Statistical Numeracy for Health: A Cross-cultural Comparison With Probabilistic National Samples. Arch Intern Med. 2010 Mar 8;170(5):462–8.
- BBC News. What happened when MPs took a maths exam
- Gigerenzer G, Hoffrage U. How to improve Bayesian reasoning without instruction: Frequency formats. Psychol Rev. 1995;102(4):684–704.
- Gigerenzer G, Edwards A. Simple tools for understanding risks: from innumeracy to insight. BMJ. 2003 Sep 27;327(7417):741–4.
- Gigerenzer G, Gaissmaier W, Kurz-Milcke E, Schwartz LM, Woloshin S. Helping Doctors and Patients Make Sense of Health Statistics. Psychol Sci Public Interest. 2007 Nov;8(2):53–96.
- Martignon L, Kurz-Milcke E. Educating children in stochastic modeling: Games with stochastic urns and colored tinker-cubes. 2006.
- Reyna VF, Brainerd CJ. Numeracy, ratio bias, and denominator neglect in judgments of risk and probability. Learn Individ Differ. 2008;18(1):89–107.
- NHS Breast Screening Programme. Breast screening: helping women decide
- Garfield J, Ahlgren A. Difficulties in Learning Basic Concepts in Probability and Statistics: Implications for Research. J Res Math Educ. 1988;19(1):44–63.
Chapter 20: What's the best strategy?
- NCTM. The Game of SKUNK
- Falk R, Tadmor-Troyanski M. THINK: A Game of Choice and Chance. Teach Stat. 1999 Mar 1;21(1):24–7.
- Fletcher M. Play Your Cards Right. Teach Stat. 1995 Jun 1;17(2):74–74.
- High or Low: A Game of Probability
- Hunt G. Play Your Cards Right Again! Teach Stat. 1996 Mar 1;18(1):15–6.
- Fletcher M. The Price is Right. Teach Stat. 2005 Aug 1;27(3):69–71.
- Math Academy. Probability Classroom Materials
- McCoy L, Buckner S, Munley J. Probability Games from diverse cultures
- Fletcher M, Mooney C. The Weakest Link. Teach Stat. 2003 Jun 1;25(2):54–5.
Chapter 21: What does 'random' look like?
- NRICH. What Does Random Look Like?
- Understanding Uncertainty. Pure Randomness in Art
- Slauson L. Is the iPod shuffle feature truly random? A simulation activity.
- NRICH. Coin Toss Checker
- Green D. Recognising Randomness. Teach Stat. 1997 Jun 1;19(2):36–9. (pdf)
- Bialik C. How Random Is the iPod’s Shuffle?
- Ziegler L, Garfield J. Exploring students’ intuitive ideas of randomness using an iPod shuffle activity. Teach Stat. 2013 Mar 1;35(1):2–7.
- Ziegler L. HowRandomIsTheiPodsShuffle.pdf
Chapter 22: How should we change our beliefs?
- Haigh J. The logic of drug testing
- Understanding Uncertainty. Bayes Theorem
- Understanding Uncertainty. Screening for breast cancer
- Bedwell M. Slow thinking and deep learning: Tversky and Kahneman’s taxi cabs. Teach Stat. 2015 Sep 1;37(3):85–8.
- Wikipedia. Bayes’ theorem
- Plus magazine. Ye banks and Bayes
Chapter 23: How probable is probable?
- European Medicines Agency. Section 4.8: Undesirable effects
- NHS Choices. Screening for Down’s, Edwards’ and Patau’s syndromes in pregnancy - Pregnancy and baby guide
- NHS Choices. Amniocentesis
- Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC ). Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Summary for Policymakers
- MI5 - The Security Service. Terrorist threat levels
- Wikipedia. Words of estimative probability
- The Guardian. How probable is “probable”?
Chapter 24: Misconceptions
- NRICH. Do You Feel Lucky? http://nrich.maths.org/7222
- Monks AR. Equally Likely. Teach Stat. 1985 Sep 1;7(3):66–9.
- Walker D. Probability TES Resources.
Chapter 25: Heads or Tails, boy or girl?
- Office for National Statistics. Birth Characteristics in England and Wales, 2014
- Wikipedia. Pascal’s triangle
Chapter 26: Your risk is increased!
- The BBC. Processed meats do cause cancer - WHO
- motivate.maths.org. “Eating bacon sandwiches is bad for you!” Evaluating Risk
- xkcd. Increased Risk: explain xkcd
- The Independent. Two glasses of wine a day triples risk of mouth cancer
- Understanding Uncertainty. 2845 ways to spin the Risk
- Kill or cure? Help to make sense of the Daily Mail’s ongoing effort to classify every inanimate object into those that cause cancer and those that prevent it.
Chapter 27: It's a lottery
- NRICH. Mathsland National Lottery
- The National Lottery. Lotto draw history | Results |
- Understanding Uncertainty. Lottery expectations
- Wikipedia. National Lottery
- The National Lottery. Home
- Burghes D, Galbraith P. Teaching Mathematics through National Lotteries
- Haigh J. The UK National Lottery - a guide for beginners
Chapter 28: Switch or stick?
- Falk R. Monty’s dilemma with no formulas. Teach Stat. 2014 Jun 1;36(2):58–61.
- Wikipedia: Monty Hall problem
- Puza BD, Pitt DGW, O’Neill TJ. The Monty Hall Three Doors Problem. Teach Stat. 2005 Feb 1;27(1):11–5.
Chapter 29: It’s not fair!
- NRICH. In a Box
- NRICH. The Better Bet
- Walker D. Probability TES Resources.
- NRICH. To Insure or Not to Insure
- Marshall JB. Probability with Roulette. Teach Stat. 2007 Aug 1;29(3):74–9.
- Barr G, Scott L. Teaching Statistical Principles with a Roulette Simulation
- McPherson SH. Unders and Overs: Using a Dice Game to Illustrate Basic Probability Concepts. Teach Stat. 2015 Mar 1;37(1):18–22.
- Wikipedia. Under Over
Chapter 30: Take a risk?
- Wikipedia. Framing effect (psychology)
- I want to teach forever. Probability using Deal or No Deal
- Baker A, Bittner T, Makrigeorgis C, Johnson G, Haefner J. Teaching Prospect Theory with the Deal or No Deal Game Show. Teach Stat. 2010 Sep 1;32(3):81–7.
- Wikipedia. Deal or No Deal (UK game show)
- Wikipedia. Deal or No Deal
- NRICH. Discussing Risk and Reward
Chapter 31: Happy birthday to you, and you, and ..
- BBC News: The birthday paradox at the World Cup
- Russell M. Pigeons, facebook and the birthday problem. Teach Stat. 2013 Mar 1;35(1):26–8. (pdf)
- Diaconis P, Mosteller F. Methods for studying coincidences. J Am Stat Assoc. 1989;84(408):853–61. (pdf)
- Wikipedia: Birthday problem
- Borja MC, Haigh J. The birthday problem. Significance. 2007 Sep 1;4(3):124–7.
- NRICH. Same Number!
- Understanding Uncertainty. What are the chances?
Chapter 32: How long do I have to wait?
- NRICH. Last One Standing
- singingbanana. Flipping 10 heads in a row
- singingbanana. Flipping 10 heads in a row - full video
- Spivey M. The Expected Number of Flips for a Coin to Achieve n Consecutive Heads
- NRICH. The Derren Brown Coin Flipping Scam
- Barrow J. Outer space: A collector's piece
- Wikipedia. Coupon collector's problem
- Gerke O. How much is it going to cost me to complete a collection of football trading cards? Teach Stat. 2013 Jun 1;35(2):89-93.
- Spiegelhalter D, Smith O. Understanding uncertainty: Infinite monkey business